Website Analysis
Keyword, Position, Volume
Example row: "seo tools,5,1000"
Header names can vary (e.g., "Rank" or "Current Position" for column 2)
Website Performance
Revenue Ceiling Analysis
Maximum Potential (18 months)
Keyword Analysis
Detailed breakdown of all keywords analyzed in this forecast
| Keyword | Current Position | Search Volume | Current CTR | Current Monthly Traffic | Current Monthly Revenue | Potential at #1 | Revenue Opportunity |
|---|
Understanding the Forecast Model
This calculator uses an exponential decay model to project ranking improvements. This is more conservative and realistic than linear projections commonly used in the industry.
Why Rankings Don't Improve Linearly
SEO follows a natural difficulty curve. Moving from position 50 to 30 is easier than moving from position 5 to 1 because:
- Top positions have more established competitors
- Higher-ranking pages have more authority and backlinks
- Top 3 positions face the most competition
The Exponential Decay Model
Our model reflects this reality with three phases:
The Formula
Our model uses this mathematical formula:
Position at Month N = Current Position - (Improvement × (1 - e-0.15×N))
The rate of 0.15 is conservative. This means your rankings improve steadily but realistically, accounting for increasing competition as you approach position #1.
See Example Calculation
Starting Position: 15
| Month | Formula | Result | Positions Improved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 - (14 × 0) = 15 | Position 15 | - |
| 3 | 15 - (14 × 0.36) = 10 | Position 10 | 5 positions |
| 6 | 15 - (14 × 0.59) = 7 | Position 7 | 8 positions |
| 12 | 15 - (14 × 0.83) = 3 | Position 3 | 12 positions |
| 18 | 15 - (14 × 0.93) = 1 | Position 1 | 14 positions |
Notice how improvement slows: 5 positions in first 3 months, but only 2 positions from month 12-18.
Why This Is Conservative
Compared to typical SEO projections:
- 18-month timeline vs. industry average of 12 months
- Exponential decay vs. linear improvement (unrealistic)
- Rate of 0.15 vs. aggressive rates of 0.20-0.25
- No conversion improvements assumed (RPV stays constant)
- No search volume growth assumed
Result: This forecast intentionally under-promises to avoid unrealistic expectations. Many campaigns exceed these projections.
For Technical Stakeholders
Mathematical Basis
The exponential decay function:
f(t) = A × (1 - e^(-λt))
Where:
- A = Total improvement needed (current position - 1)
- λ = Decay rate constant (0.15)
- t = Time in months
- e = Euler's number (≈2.71828)This function is commonly used in growth models where:
- Initial progress is rapid (low resistance)
- Progress slows approaching asymptote (increasing resistance)
- Never quite reaches 100% (realistic ceiling)
Why λ = 0.15?
| Rate (λ) | Months to 90% Improvement | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| 0.10 | ~23 months | Very Conservative |
| 0.15 | ~15 months | Conservative (Used) |
| 0.20 | ~11 months | Moderate |
| 0.25 | ~9 months | Aggressive |
We chose 0.15 to balance realism with achievability, assuming consistent SEO efforts.
Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of different rates on same starting position (Position 15):
The chart above shows how different decay rates affect the same keyword over 18 months.
Model Validation
This model aligns with empirical SEO research:
- Ahrefs 2023 study: Average time to top 10 = 12-18 months
- Backlinko analysis: 95% of new pages don't reach top 10 within 1 year
- Moz correlation data: Domain authority shows diminishing returns at higher ranks
Assumptions & Methodology
- Conservative ranking improvement over 18 months using exponential decay model
- All keywords gradually improve toward position 1
- Revenue Per Visit (RPV) remains constant at $0.00
- Search volumes remain constant
- CTR data based on industry-standard organic click-through rates
- Forecast assumes consistent SEO optimization efforts